On leaders and elections

Yes, it’s going to be a political entry.

There’s actually two leadership changes coming up in British politics.  Lets start with the Tories, because there’s a lot more to unpack there.

As discussed in my last political entry, Theresa May is stepping down.  In fact, Friday is her last day as Tory party leader (though she has to continue as PM for the moment).  So far, there are 13, yes, 13 candidates.  Lets have a look at some of them.

Boris Johnson, you all probably know about.  Trump is supporting Boris, which may help or hurt him.  Michael Gove is the guy who previously said he shouldn’t be leader before stabbing Boris in the back after the referendum to run.  Jeremy Hunt pretty much lives up to his rhyming slang.  He’s also the former health minister who went into 10 Downing Street during a cabinet reshuffle where he was going to be sacked and ended up with a bigger portfolio.  Matt Hancock has his own social media app (I am, of course, not making this up).  Esther McVey had to apologise in the commons for misleading them.  Dominic Raab is the former Brexit Secretary who quit the post because he couldn’t vote for the deal he was responsible for negotiating before later voting for the deal.  Sajid Javid is the current Home Secretary.  He’s just said that if he becomes PM he will increase funding for the police.  Which, of course, he can already do.  Andrea Leadsom, the former leader of the House who previously said she should be PM because she’s a mother.

Rory Stewart has come from seemingly nowhere to become one of the favourites.  He’s got quite the CV.  He speaks 10 different languages, tutored Princes William and Harry at Eton, walked across Afghanistan and may possibly have been, or still is, a member of MI6.

What does this mean for Brexit?  Well, depends on who gets in.  Approaches vary from we will leave on Halloween regardless to absolutely ruling out no deal to a single candidate advocating a second referendum with “Remain – May’s Deal – Leave” the options.  There’s also a lot of talk about renegotiation, despite the fact the EU have absolutely ruled that out for months and, indeed, just did so again.

The whole thing is going to take ages.  The Tories don’t put all of the candidate up in one vote.  The MP’s hold a series of votes.  The candidate in last place of each vote is eliminated.  This keeps going until there’s two candidates left then it goes to the membership for a postal vote.  Assuming none of the candidates drop out along the way and one MP vote a day, we’re looking at two weeks before it even goes to the members.

I’m pretty sure this is what Barnier was on about when he urged us not to waste the extension we got.

The other one is the Lib Dems.  Less drama here.  Sir Vince Cable announced a while back he would be stepping down.  Despite the surge of Lib Dem support in the local and EU elections, he’s stuck to his word.  It’s between Jo Swinson and Ed Davey and will likely end with Swinson being leader.

Now to the EU elections.  The results were announced last week.  How did it go?

The Brexit Party won the most seats.  In fact, they are the single biggest party in the new EU Parliament.  This was not unexpected.  But, does it show that the UK wants a hard Brexit?

Eeeh.

The Lib Dems also preformed very, very well.  In fact, if you combine the vote share of the pro hard Brexit parties and the pro Remain parties, the Remainers come out on top.  But it’s close.  Very close.  There’s also Labour and the Tories, which couldn’t be put into either category.

The elections were a nightmare for both the big parties, by the way.  They completely crashed.

Don’t think this’ll give any indicators for the next General Election.  For a start, the Brexit Party will actually need policies.  It’s one thing to shout about wanting a hard Brexit, but people kinda want to know what’ll they’ll do after that.

There are fun things to come out of the election.  As with all British elections, the hashtag on Twitter dogsatpollingstations which is one of the most British things ever.  Steven Yaxley-Lennon (stage name Tommy Robinson) being utterly humiliated and losing his deposit.  Two candidates in the South East, one Brexit, one Green, called Alexandra Philips getting elected.  And, well:

Will