And thus we hit the trail

Yup, it’s politics.

This is an entry that I wanted to write before, but stuff kept happening.

When I last wrote on this topic, the Tories had been refused a recess for their party conference.  Conference went ahead, which meant that Johnson missed another PMQ’s*.  Now, the tradition is that when the PM misses PMQ’s, the Leader of the Opposition does as well.  This created a bit of history as Diane Abbott became the first person of colour, of either gender, to ask questions from the dispatch box.

Then, Parliament was prorogued.  Again.  This, however was a normal proroguing for a Queens Speech.  Which was light on detail.  Very light on detail.

Meanwhile, the clock was ticking down to Brexit day.  What would Johnson do?

It then emerged, we had a Working Agreement!  What Johnson did was capitulate.  He got rid of the backstop and replaced it with a customs border in the Irish Sea.  This, it has to be pointed out, is something that Johnson had previously said no PM should ever agree to.  Overall, the deal is worse than Mays deal.  For a start, no-one knew what was happening with customs checks for stuff going to NI from mainland Britain.

Still, there was a vote to pass it to the third reading in Parliament, which the Government won.  This is only the second vote that Johnson won and the first was an uncontroversial bill about the environment that was nodded through**.

Then it came to the programme motion.  This determines the passage of the bill through Parliament.  The Government wanted it to go through all of the stages in three days.  MP’s, however, decided that a bill so fundamentally set on changing the country deserved more scrutiny and the motion was voted down.

Then the debate about the Queens Speech finished and the Government won the vote.  This gives Johnson a win loss record of 2 – 9.

So, what would Johnson do about the letter that he had, by law, to send to the EU?  He had said he’d rather be dead in a ditch than send it, but not sending it would be illegal.

Eventually he found a solution.  He sent a photocopy of the letter outlined in the Benn act and didn’t sign it.  Because our PM is, apparently, a child who thinks that means he didn’t send it.  He also sent a side letter asking the EU to ignore the first one.

The EU ignored that side letter and gave an extension until 31 Jan 2020.

Then there was another motion under the Fixed Term Parliament Act for an early General Election.  The other parties were wary, because Johnson said the date of the election would not be fixed until the Working Agreement Bill had been rushed through.  So, in what will not doubt come as a huge shock to you, Johnson lost that vote as well.

Yesterday, there was a bill that started its passage through Parliament to call for a General Election on the 12th of December.  There was some disappointment because others wanted to be on the 9th.  However, the bill passed through all of the Commons stages unamended and went to the Lords today.  It passed through there unamended as well, which means it will become law.

Tomorrow is John Bercows last day as Speaker (he had been asked to delay leaving until the GE, but decided against), Monday is the election of the new Speaker, there’s a couple of bills going through wash up (basically ensuring they become law) then Tuesday Parliament is dissolved and we head into the election period.

How will tings turn out?

The Tories have a lead in the polls.  However, Labour overcame a bigger Tory lead in the polls in 2017 to force a hung parliament.  corbyn is an outstanding campaigner and Johnson, honestly, isn’t.

so, it’s looking likely it’s a hung parliament.  This is a problem for the Tories.  The only way that they will be able to cling to power is to enter a coalition or a confidence and supply deal with at least one other party.  In 2017, they entered a C&S deal with the DUP.  But, considering that they don’t like the deal Johnson made, it’s not likely to happen again.  The Lib Dems will make a second EU referendum a red line, which the Tories will never agree with, and the SNP will do the same with a second Indyref as well, which there’s no way the Tories will agree with.

And no-one knows what’s happening with the Brexit Party.

Labour, however, are already in favour of a second EU referendum and have said they are in favour of Indyref2, just need to haggle on the timing.  So, it’s likely to be a Lab/Lib/SNP coalition, just to get past a second EU referendum then or a C&S deal with both, again, with a GE.

Will

P.S. the UKIP leader has resigned, if anyone cares.  God knows, you’d be the only one.

*PMQ’s = Prime Ministers Questions.  Happens once a week when Parliament is in session.  Every Wednesday from midday.  It’s supposed to last half an hour, but generally overruns.  The questioners, with the exception of the Leader of the Opposition and the leader of the third biggest party in the Commons enter a draw to be allowed to ask a question.  Each MP chosen gets one question, the leader of the third biggest party (at the moment Ian Blackford as the SNP leader in Westminster) gets three, LOTO gets six.  MP’s will generally find a way to work their constituency into the question.  In theory, it’s a chance for the Commons to hold the PM to account.  In reality, it’s worth remembering it’s called Prime Ministers Questions, not Prime Ministers Answers.

**Nodding through = whenever there’s a vote in the Commons, before the division, there is a voice vote.  If there’s audibly more support for “Aye” or “No” it doesn’t go to a division, since the will of the Commons has been indicated.  If it’s “Aye”, it’s described as being nodded through.  Not sure why nodded through, but that’s Westminster for you