An update to the update

We now know what is going to be voted on tomorrow.

There’s a fair bit to explain here.

what is commonly known as the Working Agreement is actually two documents.  There’s the WA itself.  This is the document that dictates our relationship with the EU immediately on leaving.  This is stuff like the Northern Ireland backstop.

Then there is the Political Declaration.  This is the guide for talks about how the discussions of the future will go.

Now, we’ve always been told either both or neither are agreed.  They cannot be separated.

Theresa May, having never met a u turn she didn’t like to take, has now put just the WA up for the vote.  This is a big enough change to what was voted down twice already for it to actually go to a vote.

So, will it pass?  Nope.

Labour are against it.  With Theresa May announcing she’s stepping down for the next phase of Brexit, they do not want the next leader of the Tory party, likely to be a hard Brexiteer, to be negotiating that with absolutely no framework whatsoever.

The European Research Group (kind of a party within the Tory party, very much in favour of hard Brexit) have until now opposed the WA.  May is hoping to win them over with her stepping down.  It has with some (most notably Boris Johnston and Jacob Rees Mogg), but the rest probably will not.

Then there is the DWP.  They will not vote for any WA that has a backstop.  And, indeed, they have announced that they are voting Nay.

Will