The Political Aftermath

My Two Cents

Many of my readers left comments on my previous entry. I thought I’d throw in another two cents.

First, a digression. Where does the “my two cents” idiom come from? According to the Wikipedia, which we all know contains all that is right and true, it comes from the original English expression, “to put in my two pennies worth” or “my tuppence worth.”

It’s meant to preface the tentative stating of one’s opinion by depreciating the opinion to follow, suggesting its value is only a very small amount. Supposedly it’s intended to either show politeness and humility, or be an ironic as you espouse your strongly felt opinion.

There are few witty comebacks that accompany the idiom:
“I said a penny for your thoughts, but I got two pennies’ worth.”
“If you don’t put your two cents in, how can you get change?”

Rape, Rape, Rape

I realized I was wrong about the nasty rape comments that came from the Republicans that I listed in my previous entry. There weren’t six Republicans who made controversial comments about rape during their recent campaigns for election and re-election. There were nine. The other three were:

Congressional Candidate John Koster (R-WA) – “Incest is so rare, I mean it’s so rare… But the rape thing, you know, I know a woman who was raped and kept the child, gave it up for adoption and doesn’t regret it. In fact, she’s a big pro-life proponent. But, on the rape thing it’s like, how does putting more violence onto a woman’s body and taking the life of an innocent child that’s a consequence of this crime, how does that make it better?”

Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) – “Oh, life of the mother – exception of life of the mother, rape and incest. Yeah, I’ve always — that’s a mantra, you know, I’ve said it so often it just spills out. If you really – there are very few pregnancies as a result of rape, fortunately, and incest — compared to the usual abortion, what is the percentage of abortions for rape? It is tiny. It is a tiny, tiny percentage. …. [I]n terms of the percentage of pregnancies, percentage of abortions for rape as compared to overall abortions, it’s a tiny, tiny percentage. … Most abortions, most abortions are for what purpose? The just don’t want to have a baby! The second reason for abortion is you’d like a boy and it’s a girl, or vice versa. And I know a lot of people are opposed to abortion who are pro-choice.”

Senate Candidate Rep. Rick Berg (R-ND) voted to criminalize abortion in the North Dakota as a Class AA felony, including in the case of rape or incest. When interviewed about his position, it went like this:
 
Interviewer, Jim Shaw: What would the appropriate sentence be if abortion was illegal and a woman did have an abortion?
Rep. Rick Berg: You know, I’ll leave that up to others to come up with that.
Shaw: Should we put her in jail? Should we fine her? Do you have any thoughts on that at all?
Berg: You know, those are things that need to be worked out through, you know, through the legislative process.

Thankfully, like the six I listed before, Americans did the right thing, and these three candidates lost. The only one who will be in office in the springtime will be Paul Ryan, who retained his congressional seat, despite spectacularly losing the vice presidency.

War and Tidings of War

We currently have 68,000 troops in Afghanistan. It’s the longest war in U.S. history. It started October 7, 2001. That makes it over 11 years long now.

Americans soldiers and our allies presently face heavy losses from insider attacks, known as “green on blue” attacks. At least 54 international troops have died as a result of such attacks, in which Afghans turn their weapons on coalition colleagues.
 
Some other dismal facts:
·         In addition to the 2,000 Americans dead, there have been over 1,000 coalition forces killed.
·         Over 17,000 American soldiers have been wounded.
·         As of October, 2012 ranks as the 4th deadliest year for American troops.
·         There have been an estimated 20,000 Afghan civilians killed.
·         Over 3,200 American troops have been diagnosed with Traumatic Brain Injury.
 
I understood the need for the United States to enter the War in Afghanistan in 2001. We needed to dismantle al-Qaeda and the Taliban who supported terrorists. We needed revenge. We needed to find and bring Osama bin Laden to justice. I saw the need.

I’m not happy about my fellow Americans being in harm’s way 11 years later. For the sake of… what? Nation building? Arbitrary withdrawal dates? We’ve exacted our revenge. Osama bin Laden is dead. Al-Qaeda is routed. Time to leave, don’t you think?

On February 1, 2012, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta laid out the administration’s most explicit portrayal of the U.S. drawdown in Afghanistan, saying that U.S. and other international forces in Afghanistan expect to end their combat role in 2013 and continue a training and advisory role with Afghan forces through 2014. During President Obama’s campaign, he repeatedly stuck to the 2014 date.

Despite the warmongering comments by Romney during his bid for the presidency, like calling Russia our “No. 1 geopolitical foe,” Romney didn’t mention the War in Afghanistan in his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention on August 30, 2012. But the former governor’s opinion doesn’t matter anymore. Romney is thoroughly irrelevant.

I wish that President Obama had run his campaign on pulling our troops out sooner. I’m not entirely happy that the War in Afghanistan went largely ignored by politicians. I don’t understand why the war needs to last until 2014.

Today’s Veteran’s Day, a time to reflect on the service and sacrifice of our military. I wish they were all home with their wifes, husbands, children, and loved ones. To their honor, to their patriotism, to their commitment to keep me and my family safe, I thank them.

Ashleigh bin Field

Last Tuesday, while I watched the Democrats win, I looked at OD author [Ashleigh bin Field]’s diary a few times for schadenfreude’s sake.

One of her entries was titled, “Confident Mitt Romney Cruising to Certain Victory!” Underneath the title, she wrote, “Democrats soil undergarments. And/Or Canadians soil undergarments. And/Or Everyone else just cheers.” (36 pt. red font and all caps removed for legibility and my sanity’s sake.)

My friend [Peter_24601] commented: “You said the exact same thing for McCain in 2008. How did that turn out? :)”

[Ashleigh bin Field] responded: “Dear Peter. Buddy, you have to put your kids on serious diets. they are almost as big as you already!! To think you are wasting your time noting while your kids have clogged arteries is frightening. Your parenting and critical thinking skills are clearly lacking.”

Later, [Ashleigh bin Field] wrote: “Nailbiter!! With Romney in the Lead!! Democrats devastated.”

I commented: “You’re the first one I thought of when I wondered, ‘How will Romney supporters react when they find out they’re losing?’ Now I know: denial.”

I’ll let you draw your own opinion about Ashleigh’s attack on Peter’s kids. I personally condemn personal attacks like this. It’s a clear demonstration of Ashleigh’s true moral character.

As to her three comments she left on my last entry, I’ll respond even though she hasn’t done anything to deserve my attention.

Comment #1
“If you only paid attention to politics for a few months, you should be embarassed.”

“Embarrassed” is spelled with two Rs. Besides that, you really think so? I don’t know—I’ve got enough to worry about without getting worked up about politics every day. I’d rather focus on more immediate things from day to day. I vote for other people to make political decisions on my behalf. I might as well take advantage of it somewhat. However, I see your point. Maybe I need to be more civically involved, as you clearly are.
 
Comment #2
“*YAWN* Any person that only paid attention to politics for a month shouldn’t be allowed to vote. If you only paid attention for a month, you missed 4 years of Obama lying through his teeth about everything. Any person that paid moderate attention already knew Obama is a liar. Obama was counting on misinformed voters (tools) like OliverHailey.”

I’m not sure why Ashleigh came back to add another comment. Maybe it’s because my political entries actually aren’t copying and pasting Fox News articles and start actual conversations? I don’t know.
 
Anyway, let’s break this comment down to its elemental bullshit.

“*YAWN”* – I’m not sure why my entry bored you enough to comment on it three times.

“Any person that only paid attention to politics for a month shouldn’t be allowed to vote.” If you’re talking about me, you got the timeline a little off. I wrote, “I started to pay attention to politics in the 2012 election.” The 2012 election didn’t start a month ago.
Also, it seems to be a Republican trend to suppress voting on arbitrary criteria. I personally think everyone should participate in our democracy, not just the people that you think are worthy. (Well, except perhaps the mentally insane and felons.)

“If you only paid attention for a month…” – I didn’t.

“…you missed 4 years of Obama lying through his teeth about everything. Any person that paid moderate attention already knew Obama is a liar.” – Citation needed. Carl Sagan once said, “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” I suggest you provide some.

“Obama was counting on…” – I live in Arizona, which has voted for one Democratic candidate for the last 60 years (President Clinton in 1996). While I pontificate about politics, I’m confident that my presidential vote won’t matter. Was Obama counting on me? Nope. He visited Arizona once back in April, and I think Michelle visited later in the year. Arizona isn’t even remotely a swing state. While I exercise my First Amendment right to free speech on OpenDiary, this hardly constitutes as anything Obama was counting on during his campaign.

“… misinformed voters (tools) like OliverHailey.”  I consider myself fairly intelligent and value evidence and reason. I’d be happy to listen to your evidence to the contrary. Thanks for spelling my name right, anyway.
 
Comment #3
“Democrats voted for high unemployment, high gas prices, rationed healthcare, and welfare for all. In 4 years from now you’ll all be wondering why life is so miserable.”

“Democrats voted for high unemployment…” – We’re climbing out of a recession which began on President George W. Bush’s watch. I doubt anyone wants a higher unemployment rate, and I think President Obama is doing a fantastic job steering us towards more prosperity. While the process seems slow, it’s going in the right direction. Right now we’re sitting at 7.9% unemployment. I agree that this needs to come down. I don’t think the Republican plan would have made this figure any better, or dropped it faster.

“…high gas prices…” – There are a lot of factors affecting the price of gas. To say that the president has complete control over the price of gas is an oversimplification. Possibly if Romney had won, they would have opened up drilling in Alaska, building more pipelines, started to burn coal, and disbanded the EPA. But every action like this sends shockwaves to other areas, mostly to the detriment of the environment. I think President Obama has a sensible approach to energy policy. Kind of makes you wonder where we’d be if Al Gore had won in 2004, though, doesn’t it?

“…rationed healthcare…” – “Rationed” is an odd word to choose. I think this might be a vague dog-whistle reference to the Independent Payment Advisory Board set up in the PPACA, the one that Sarah Palin called a “death panel.”
The World Health Organization (WHO), in 2000, ranked the U.S. health care system as the highest in cost, first in responsiveness, 37th in overall performance, and 72nd by overall level of health (among 191 member nations included in the study). Clearly, the reforms made by the PPACA are needed. If I had my druthers, I would have gone for a single-pay health care system rather than the confusing setup that the PPACA presents, but it’s a step in the right direction, unwilling Republicans be damned.

“…and welfare for all.” – I’ll quote that document that Republicans like to wave around, the Constitution of the United States, first sentence:
We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

“In 4 years from now you’ll all be wondering why life is so miserable.” – Cheer up, Ashleigh. Your side lost. Sure, you’re eating bitter grapes right now, but things will settle down as they inevitably do, and you’ll move on.

I’ve had four years under President Obama and I chose him again. What makes you think I did this blindly? Regardless, I don’t live my life dependent on the whims of politicians, Democrat or Republican. I’ve only got one life, and during the next four years I plan on living it with as much vigor and enthusiasm as ever. I’m going to welcome my little child into the world come next July. I love my life, I love my liberty, and I love my freedom to disagree with folks like you.

Polls and Predictions

Davo (curious_dave) pointed out that Intrade predicted the win for Obama, in the true “put your money where your mouth is” spirit. Quite true. I’ll definitely have to pay attention to Intrade for future predictive purposes. I’ll also pay attention to Nate Silver’s blog for future races.

I heard an NPR interview a professor from American University, Allan Lichtman, who views political races the same way he views earthquakes, as events fundamentally driven by structural factors deep beneath the surface, rather than by superficial events at the surface. He argues that the efforts made by both sides of a presidential race essentially “cancel” each other out, so underlying factors have bigger predictive value.

The 13 predictive “keys” he looks for are as follows:
 
1.    Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2.    Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3.    Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4.    Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5.    Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6.    Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7.    Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8.    Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9.    Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
The theory goes, if at least eight of the 13 keys are scored in favor of the incumbent, he will win the election

Nate Silver criticized the keys theory at length <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/31/despite-keys-obama-is-no-lock/”>on his blog, calling most of the keys subjective and that the margin of error was too large to prove useful. I’m prone to agree with Silver, although it’ll be interesting to watch the race four years from now and see how the key theory plays out, now that I know about it.

I think Nate Silver’s on the right track, making a meta-analysis of polling data with sophisticated formulas to weight data. It seems like a good use of math. The only thing I’m hesitant about is whether polls will continue to be entirely accurate, in that they mostly use landline phones, and landline phones seem to be on their way out. However, polls were by in large accurate this year, so I’ll table my hesitation about them.
Watching the Intrade prediction is another way of approaching the same problem. I suppose anyone putting up their money based on the race’s outcome would be aware of the polls, the 538 blog, the key theory, the pundits, and the general feel of the race. It’s another way to see a meta-analysis, an ongoing poll of sorts.

I think the only ones ostensibly deluded about the potential outcome of the election were the folks at Fox News. I suspect they knew that Romney didn’t have much of a chance, but they didn’t want to show any hesitation during their broadcasts, lest they persuade their audience to abandon ship before they traveled to the voting booth. Their delusion crystalized when, on November 6th, Karl Rove told Megyn Kelly that Ohio was too early to count towards Obama, and Kelly took the awkward walk down to their room where someone was actually doing the math. Kelly eventually asked Rove, “Is this just math that you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better, or is this real?”

I think we all know the answer.

Uncounted Votes

[Desert_Rose] asked, “I just saw you’re in AZ…how about all those uncounted votes, eh? They’ll probably just throw them away.”

The American Civil Liberties Union named Pima County as the worst offender in disenfranchising voters in 2008, because the county invalidated 18 percent of provisional ballots because voters went to the wrong polling place in that election.
This election doesn’t appear much better. On November 8, Secretary of State Ken Bennett said that 631,274 votes remained uncounted (out of 3.1 million registered voters in the state). By November 9, the outcome of several Arizona elections remain unknown.

Meanwhile, other states also fought hard to suppress voting too:
 
·         Florida’s governor Rick Scott reduced early voting and refused to extend early voting again despite long lines. He also tried to purge legitimate voters from the rolls shortly before the election. Some counties in Florida also had 10 page ballots.
·         Ohio’s Secretary of State Jon Husted reduced early voting and fought all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court to keep it that way.
·         Colorado’s Secretary of State Scott Gessler tried to purge his voter rolls right before the election.
·         Pennsylvania passed a voter ID law. In the words of Rep. Mike Turzai, “Voter ID, which is gonna allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania, done.” Fortunately, this was blocked by the courts for this election cycle.
·         The U.S. Supreme Court will consider a challenge to the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

It seems to me that there needs to be elections reform in a major way. I’m hoping President Obama was serious when he said in his victory speech, “By the way, we need to fix that.” Nobody should have to wait in a line for six hours to vote. And nobody’s vote should be thrown away.

Change of the Republican Platform

[Greywolf Borealis] said:
“Republicans haven’t been the Party of Abraham Lincoln since the 1950s and they aren’t even the Party of DD Eisenhower or Ronald Reagan these days.
“What they have done is to minimalize their standing in the eyes of American voters. That will continue until they bring their platform out of the 1800s and into the 21st Century.
“Change WILL happen and fighting it is futile and senseless. Actually it’s idiotic.
“Be well.”

I hope you’re right. I would prefer to have more than one person to vote for. If the Republican’s only difference from the Democrats were their stance on the economy, maybe I’d hear them out. But with a long laundry list of horrible, terrible, no good positions on so many issues, I have no choice but to vote against them every time. Fortunately for me, demographics are on my side.

MSNBC

[Cras es Noster] said:
“All the affordable health care act does is require 32 million americans to buy health insurance. I would love to own a health insurance company right now. MSNBC makes me puke.”

We’ve sparred about the PPACA before. As for MSNBC, it ain’t perfect. Take, for example, this calendar:
 

 
What happened to August 31 through August 35?


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