Addictive Personality

And, in addition to that, I have tactile obsessions. So, that might make sense of some things.

Listen and love: Cover of “Creep” by Radiohead

I’m an odd mix of learning styles, favoring pretty much all of them, but I always end up coming back to some sort of haptic blend. Ultimately, I just have to do it to really figure it out. It’s not that I don’t conceptually understand things; I do. However, it’s the experiential that really cements lessons for me.

So, I move through the motions, understanding it’s the only way I’m going to work through something. Sometimes, it’s about mentally dislodging whatever was standing in the way of progress. Often, it requires just sitting there, feeling what I’m feeling, and letting it run its course like a poison that will eventually dissipate. Sometimes, you just have to bloodlet (figuratively speaking, of course). Diving in.

Sometimes, however, you have to plot well in advance, which I’m surprisingly good at. I say surprisingly because even I’m usually caught off guard. Plans and intentions, well-laid and otherwise, but I get results. It’s a controlled sort of chaos. I’m willing to ride it out, but believe me, I’ve already run all the computations. I know the probable outcomes (Hell, I usually even assign likelihood values to them). Doesn’t make it suck less when you prove yourself right, but there’s some small joy in it. Still, I have to do it. It’s the only test I have.

I think, next time, I’ll try playing nice. For real. I know I know how. I’ve done that plenty, as well. I suppose I can stop lashing out for a little while. Time to start developing probability statements.

Let’s make some assumptions (and this is always dangerous, but what the hell?):

P(B|A) = P(A and B)/P(A), where P(A) = 1 and P(B) = .113

So, P(B|A) = (1*.113)/1 = .113 (Well, that was easy math, right?)

Now:
t = 4 hrs. (but that doesn’t really matter, let’s break it into 3 segments, to keep it honest and for simplicity’s sake); so, we get 3

[sample size = 20
And 20*.113 = 2.26 (just good to know; not necessary for this equation)]

Let’s assume independence of events (although this is one hell of an assumption).

P(S) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) – P(1 and 2) – P(1 and 3) – P(2 and 3) + P(1 and 2 and 3)

This will be easier than it looks, I swear. We’re doing 101 (maybe fourth grade) math here.

P(S) = .113 + .113 + .113 – (.113*.113) – (.113*.113) – (.113*.113) + (.113*.113*.113)
P(S) = .339 – (.013) – (.013) – (.013) + (.001)
P(S) = .301

So, we’re getting diminishing returns, but multiple trials are the only way to up the odds (and that should come as no surprise to anyone).

But, let’s be honest, we’re all really hoping for that .001. That’s one in a thousand, and I don’t know about you, but I’m not getting any younger here. That represents years.

All that said, I do know how to stack a deck. Do you know the tricks, too?