that magic number *ex2*

So I write a random totally worthless unsubstantial entry about the calorie content of a chocolate chip cookie, and I get more comments on that one entry than I’ve gotten in awhile. But then I write an entry in which I completely expose my true opinion of myself and what do I get? Nada. Not a single reaction, or something to add. Nothing.
You people make me sick.
*edit:* okay I kind of take that back… I just realized that my last entry (and this one) didn’t show up on the updates list. Must have something to do with the errors I’ve been getting while saving. (the entries always saved though, so I didn’t realize there was a problem .*end edit*
*edit 2* okay this is really pissing me off that this thing won’t update to the top of the list *shakes a fist at OD* isn’t this the kind of problem that paid members shouldn’t have to deal with?? *end edit*

😛

Moving right along. My stats professor has decided to double as a dating specialist (a.k.a. matchmaker) and give us a mathematical way to find our perfect matches. Greeaaatttt. As if I needed math to invade on yet *another* aspect of my life. Actually stats itself isn’t too bad. But he used calculus to explain the solution to this problem, which I got lost on. I think I’ve decided though, that I’m going to forget about Calc II, and just take Calc I again, probably over the summer (of course college level this time) because calc is a pre-req for the higher level econ courses, and while I probably can waive the requirement… why not just play it safe?

Oh, but back to this stats problem, because I do find it very interesting. [geek-speak to ensue. you have been warned]

Suppose that in your lifetime you will date n number of people. You meet each person at random, and each person you meet, you have two options: marry or pass. Once you pass a person, you can never go back. (Obviously this is hypothetical, but its a math problem. There have to be some limits.) You have the ability to put all of the people you’ve previously dated in order from best to worst. Your goal is to marry the absolute best person in the entire n-sized pool.
The best way to go about this, is to employ “strategy j“. In strategy j, you meet j number of people first, all of whom you pass. You rank them in order of best to worst. AFTER you’ve passed all j, you marry the next person you meet that outranks all of the others that you’ve met. So, the question is. How big does j have to be to give you the best probability of success, and then what is your probability of finding the best person in the pool?

end result. j=(1/e)*n~ .3679n
(e=2.71828 aka magic number that appears a lot in nature :-P)
or in english: given a dating pool of size n, you should pass approximately 36% of n
and then your probability of marrying the absolute best person in the entire pool is also 1/e or ~36%
And for those of you wondering, which I doubt many of you are, but still… the probability that the best person was within the first j that you passed, and thus you’ll never marry them? Yup. 36%
Of course this is all assuming that you already know how big your n is going to be. And you can pretty much decide that arbitrarily for yourself. So if you decide that you’re not going to date more than 10 people in your life, pass on the first three. If you’re willing to date up to fifty, pass about the first 18 you come across.

Anyway… just thought it was interesting. Of course, it is just a mathematical model. In real life we screw up. People accidently get stuck with one of their j‘s because of an unplanned pregnancy… the one you decide is perfect, doesn’t want to marry you… and sometimes, just sometimes, you get a second chance at a “pass.”

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