Fact Checking the State of the Union

In his 2020 address to Congress, President Donald Trump stretched and distorted the facts:

• Trump claimed the economy is “the best it has ever been.” But GDP growth fell to 2.3% last year and economists predict further slowing this year.
• He said he brought about low unemployment by reversing “years of economic decay” and “failed economic policies,” when in fact over 1 million more jobs were added in the 35 months before he took office than in the first 35 months since.
• Trump boasted that the “unemployment rate for women reached the lowest level in almost 70 years.” That’s true, but it had been trending down for several years before he took office.
• The president wrongly said, “After decades of flat and falling incomes, wages are rising fast.” They’ve gone up under Trump, but also have risen under the last several presidents.
• Trump claimed that people’s 401(k)s and pensions have increased “60, 70, 80, 90, and 100% and even more.” Some may have, but that’s far higher than the average.
• He said “real median household income is now at the highest level ever recorded.” However, the Census Bureau noted that was partly due to a change in survey questions in 2014. Based on “adjusted” figures, median household income was slightly higher in 1999 than in 2018.
• Trump claimed the new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico “will create nearly 100,000 … auto jobs.” But an independent federal commission puts the job gains at 28,000 over five years.
• The president boasted that “a long, tall, and very powerful wall is being built” along the southern border, and more than 100 miles have been completed. But only one mile is located where no barriers previously existed.
• Trump said “illegal crossings” at the southwest border “are down 75% since May.” But total apprehensions in 2019 were 81% higher than in 2016, the year before Trump took office.
• He said that “after losing 60,000 factories under the previous two administrations, America has now gained 12,000 new factories under my administration.” He’s referring to what the Bureau of Labor Statistics calls manufacturing “establishments,” and most of the growth under Trump has been in facilities with fewer than five employees.
• Trump compared apples to oranges in claiming a doubling of insurance premiums in five years before he took office and “less expensive” plans under his administration.
• The president said he made an “iron-clad” promise to “always protect patients with preexisting conditions,” but that ignores the fact he has supported Republican health plans that would reduce the current protections under the Affordable Care Act.
• He suggested, misleadingly, that his administration was responsible for the U.S. becoming the world’s top producer of oil and natural gas. But the U.S. has been No. 1 in the world for natural gas for more than a decade and tops in petroleum since 2013.
• Trump said “300,000 working-age people” left the workforce during Obama’s eight years. Actually, the workforce grew by 5.4 million.

We also reviewed the Democratic response and found that Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer got the story on wages wrong, too, when she said they have “stagnated while CEO pay has skyrocketed.” Pay at the top may have grown more rapidly over the long term, but wages overall have gone up.

Analysis

Trump delivered the State of the Union on Feb. 4, a day before the Senate is expected to acquit him in the impeachment trial and nine months before the presidential election.

Trump’s Twisted ‘Comeback’

The president twisted the facts when he said his administration “launched the great American comeback” ending “years of economic decay.” Actually, as we reported three years ago when he took office, the economy was already experiencing steady growth in output, jobs and incomes in the years before he took office.

GDP — Trump boasted that “our economy is the best it has ever been,” which isn’t true.

As of the most recent official estimate, the nation’s real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product grew 2.3% last year. It grew 2.9% in 2018 and also in 2015, before Trump’s tenure. And it grew 3.8% in 2004 and 3.5% in 2005.

Most economists predict further slowing this year; last month’s Wall Street Journal’s monthly survey of business and university economists produced an average prediction of 1.9% growth for this year, for example.