Pol – State of the Opinion

Steadily we’re reaching a head to this war, I think.

For those who have just tuned in, I am not for this war. Nor do I care much for Bush or the advisors who now flock around him. I believe their actions as of late have not made American safer, they’ve increased and shall increase further the danger we have for being targeted and attacked by radical fundamentalists in the Middle East.

But on to current opinions, as those opinions are past and no longer productive.

Personally, I still think that this war plan was ill conceived. While I will grant that, compared to prior wars, it is fast, that is largely because this isn’t a real war. Its more like a one sided massacre. It’s a simple equation, really. We have more and bigger guns + air superiority and scads of massive bombs. That equals success, though we’ll suffer negligible casualties(not to make light of the deaths of Americans and Britons).

What I’m talking about isn’t win or lose. We’d have to have bungled everything to lose this fight. Winning was never in question. Its ‘style’ that is. Two main failings are on my mind, both of which are interconnected. We rushed the offensive and we weren’t ready to handle the humanitarian aid.

The rush is evident in the fact that forward forces outran their supply lines. Not only that, but guard of these extended supply lines was light, thus opening a gaping hole in the defense of the offensive. Pentagon planners are just lucky that it wasn’t better exploited. All it would have taken was the judicious use of rocket propelled grenades to disable supply trucks, cutting off the forward offensive and making them weak.

This rush is also, in part, a cause of the multiple friendly fire incidents that have happened. A F-18 downed by one of our own missiles, an A-10 Attacking a British Unit, the bombing of a bus of non-combatant Syrians and more. All due to some very bad mistakes. The A-10 could have just been an overzealous pilot though. Funny that we’ve heard nothing at all about him and what correction he will be receiving for his gross negligence.

Part of the rush, but separate in scope, is the humanitarian aid issue. For far too long ships were left sitting because their point of offload was cut off by mines. There was no alternate landing zone, no alternate plan to airdrop supplies and no initial regard for the welfare of Iraqis as the war machine rolled by them. People went without enough water for quite some time in some areas of Iraq until their water sources were fixed. Aid is coming in now, though one cannot forget that there are 25 million people in Iraq to keep fed. The task is enormous and past performance is not encouraging when considering future success.

As well, there has been no obvious plan to enforce order at the moment. Brasa is in British hands and there are reports of looting. Will the British enforce order? We don’t know, no one has even thought to mention what steps might be taken during the war. We know that the US and UK might hold power over Iraq for over half a year before establishing an Iraqi government. What we don’t know yet, as there seems to have been no plans made, is if the government will be created by US policymakers, the out of touch Iraqi Opposition or by Iraqis themselves who have lived in Iraq for years. We don’t know what they’ll do to have a stable peace between Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds. We don’t know what will be done with the tribal separations within those three types of Iraqi Muslims.

We don’t know much, do we? Seems to me, from what I’ve read, that Bush and Blair have only just started to talk about it, when it should have been one of the first things on the list to make sure something solid is hashed out and ready to be implemented. And we should know, as how the US government handles cleaning up the mess will likely be a factor of what makes or breaks their credibility.

A botch on this could very well determine just how safe America and the new Iraq is to retribution from radical Muslim elements. I don’t doubt that plans are already being made to try and take back Iraq. The question, to me, is who, when and how it will be done.

This isn’t taking into account disgruntled Iraqis either. Though some will hail us as great liberators, there is and should be a concern for those who have lost things in this war. Fathers, mothers, sons, daughters, brothers and sisters amongst other family members. Livelihoods will be shattered and families disrupted as much as bodies broken and burnt. Be the loved ones civilian or military, we cannot dismiss their upset and in some cases anger at the loss.

Anyone who might, especially military families, think to your thoughts and emotions should you lose a loved one in the fight. Be honest with yourself, will you be utterly without anger and upset?

What is there to be done about that? I don’t know. It’s a hard question, but not one that should be ignored as it will be a source of tension and strife in the rebuilding of Iraq. To keep the country cohesive, all sides must be accounted for and made to feel appeased or there will remain disorder in Iraq, which will make it ripe for revolution once more. Perhaps into something worse than what it has been or will be.

I think this tasks I too much for any one or even two nations. I know the US will marginalize the role of the UN. And I believe that this act will be the ultimate in selfishness which will only make the task harder. The legitimacy they would get through the UN(note, this is legitimacy in the eyes of the rest of the world, which the US is losing more of every day) will be nonexistent. Prior miscalculations on the part of US planners and their Iraqi exile advisors shows that their knowledge of the region and its intricate social-political layers is lacking.

Without solid intelligence, any operation is much more prone to catastrophic failure. The US needs to swallow its pride and do the honorable thing, which is to plan with the world. Rather, Bush is snubbing the UN with the, ‘we bleed for it, we keep it’ rhetoric, which is undeniably selfish grandstanding and not the way of a country that prides itself on the moral high ground.

In the end, the sum result will be the judgment of America’s image. I can’t help but look at Afghanistan two years later and wonder what happened with them? No assistance, no real care after ousting the Taliban. Will we do the same with Iraq and leave them with little or nothing in the end? Will we have two strikes against our new policy of glorious liberation? Will we now ignore the other world dictators and repressive regimes in the world? Will we continue to condemn some dictators and terrorist collaborators, while loving up to others when we want or need something from them? Will we continue to speak with forked tongue and draw the ire of those who we reach out to with cold fingers of iron?

I don’t know. But I worry for the future.