Muse – Iraq Wars

((Yup, capitalizing on my pithy and low taste title for today’s news. I’d say, ‘so sue me’, but I don’t think anyone would have a case. 😉 ))

And so the conflict is joined.

According to estimates and assumptions, we have about 3,000 insurgents in Falluja. Arrayed against them are at least 10,000 and up to 15,000 Us and Iraqi troops with superior weapons and training overall as well as armor and airpower backing them. Our military leaders expect the insurgents to fall back to the center o the city and for the city to be laced with car bombs and explosives and suggest it will be a conflict stretched over a few days. Despite suggestions that there could be hundreds of civilian casualties, Rummy seems confident that US troops will prevent too many casualties.

Meanwhile Allawi is shouting out that the insurgents will ‘go to hell’ when meeting with Iraqi troops(see first link). Interesting.

Personally, I’ve been growing leery of Allawi. He seems a little unstable.. saying enemies will go to hell is the sort of ranting rhetoric used by dictators. Not rational moderates.

What does Ren predict from this? I expect that the insurgents will be driven away. Though it won’t make a great difference for Falluja. I doubt the people will be enamored with the US or, by and large, happy with the results of this action. Any sympathizers with the insurgents will remain in power, unless the US goes about house cleaning the local officials.

The insurgency, as they’re wisely not saying, won’t be broken. They’ll strike and fade, then return once the offensive is over and general guard has been lowered. The US can’t cover the whole country. Once their attention turns elsewhere, they can slip back in.

Listening to the radio, as I write this, they’re talking about the attack. There’s a note that the Iraqi troops are bringing up the rear, with US troops on the forefront. That much I expected, knowing the US wouldn’t put their lightly trained Iraqi troops in the front where, if they broke, it would only highlight how poorly they’ve been trained thus far.

Will they find Mr Zarqawi? THey don’t think they will, that they have mentioned he’s not a primary goal says as much. If they don’t, I think that will be seen as a negative aspect. Were I him, I would have been out of the city long ago just to assure that they won’t get lucky.

Some say that this assault is the cleanest decision. If that is so, then it’s a sad perspective on events. We can only hope that it gets done to a satisfactory level with a minimum of allied and civilian casualties.

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November 8, 2004

Rumsfeld is also the guy who accused stations of fabricating reports about civilian casualties in Afghanistan, for what that’s worth.

November 8, 2004

I can’t believe there are that many Iraqis who really want this to war to keep going on and on and on. Once the average insurgent sees that the average Iraqi is sick and tired of this and that they have to face Bush and Rumsfeld for four more years they will give up and go home. They know they cannot win unless they get the average Iraqi solidly behind them.

November 8, 2004

I really think that if they can pacify Falujah and have elections in January things can start to settle down in Iraq. The average person will have more confidence in their own elected leaders and the US/Iraqi troops keeping order. It will be better by Spring. It must be.