What are the odds of life randomly occuring?

Do not feel compelled to click on my ad above. – BUM

"According to your logic, it would HAVE to come out that way sooner or later, right? StealthPudge18"

Are you asking me if I think that life evolving was inevitable? If you are, then no, I don’t really see any reason why life would necessarily arise. [A Thinking BUM]

Bum, by my saying you HAVE to assume it, I mean: Since it did happen, and we are obviously here, that your logic must ultimately end with it actually happening. The cosmic lottery hit our exact set of numbers. We know the way this ended up–we’re here. There are great many things we can deduce from this fact, but no matter what, we must at the end posit that we do exist. [StealthPudge18]

Stealth, this response shows exactly why my previous example of cards was perfect.

Since it did happen, and we are obviously here, that your logic must ultimately end with it actually happening.

With it actually happening? NO! With the possibility of it happening is ALL that there is…

If you shuffle cards, you get them in a certain order – that part’s easy. Whatever order you get them in, great. The odds of you getting that order were the same as any other order. Fine.

Let a universe run it’s course, you get the state of particles in a certain order – that part’s easy. Whatever order they end up in, great. There are a number of possible states that possible with some probability. Fine.

You can’t say AFTER THE FACT with EITHER example, "well, what are the odds of that exact result happening?" and hope to show anyone that it couldn’t have happened that way without some prior intelligence predetermining it because the "odds are too astronomical."

Ace of hearts, 2 of clubs, 5 of clubs, 3 of diamonds…. rest of the deck… let’s say that’s what we actually get. What are the odds of us getting that? Same as any of the others – 1/ 10^67th or something ridiculously huge.

Life of earth. What are the odds of getting that? I dunno, let’s say they’re really really small.

"Since it did happen, your logic must ultimately end with it actually happening…"

Is it inevitable that the deck of cards hits the ace of hearts, 2 of clubs, 5 of clubs…etc?
No. Would I argue that? No.

Is it inevitable that life evolved on earth?
No. Would I argue that? No.

So what? So what that Ace, 2, 5 ACTUALLY happened? It was possible, it happened, there does not need to be any grand designer of the deck to get a shuffled deck in a particular order.

AGAIN: Must the deck have occured like that? No. Must life have evolved? No. Are both possible? Yes. Did they both occur? Yes.

If you tried to do backwards math and figure out that the odds of it happening if it hadn’t happened yet, would you be impressed that it actually happened?

Apparently yes.

Should you be?

NO.

StealthPudge18

December 13, 2005

Hmm…ok. So I will give you a deck with thousands of cards, and perhaps one or two permutations that allow for life. And then you can spend time getting them to come out that way? Your logic here is misleading. I understand what probability means. I know it means it doesn’t HAVE to happen. That isn’t the issue. We know how this ended. This permutation is the one that happened.

So then…the odds of it happening are say, perhaps 1 in 2,000,000 (that’s probably too low, but for arguments sake, we’ll go with it.) Everytime the cards are dealt, it can turn out any way at all, and the probability is the same. But we know that one of those 2 million are the permutation that makes this world possible. And it has hit. The odds of it hitting are STILL 1 in 2,000,000.

The odds against this permutation is always 1,999,999-in-2,000,000. So it is rather improbable, if we are going simply from probability, that this world, this permutation, would ever actually transpire.

I don’t know any other way to say it. Shuffle the cards, look at how they come out – whatever they come out, the odds are “whatever”. Now, you ask me to reverse the situation, start with an unshuffled deck, shuffle, now what is the probability of getting 1 particular event. You’re comparing after the fact probability, with before the fact probability and getting confused.

The odds of life NOT developing on Venus in the exact way that they didn’t develop are as staggering as the odds that life DID develop on Earth in the exact way that it did. Must there be an intelligent designer behind the lack of life on Venus?

Unless you say, “Yes, the fact that life did not arise on Venus in the exact way that it didn’t develop is such a small probability that it must have been designed that way by an intelligent designer” – you are inconsistently applying your rule.

December 14, 2005

I’m talking about the chance of life developing anywhere as being highly improbable.

Caenis.

I gotcha.

“I’m talking about the chance of life developing anywhere as being highly improbable. StealthPudge18” I know – exactly as improbable as the series of events that lead up to the lack of life in the exact way that it lacks life on every other planet. It’s as improbable as odds that those exact water molecules are the ones that freeze into a snowflake.

Would you say that a snowflake is evidence of an intelligent designer?