Last entry on Intelligent Design for StealthPudge!

Do not feel compelled to click on my ad above. – BUM

Ok, StealthPudge, I know you’ve said that you’re finished arguing the probability of Intelligent Design after that last entry, but humor me for this last entry.

This was our last conversation:

“So I will give you a deck with thousands of cards, and perhaps one or two permutations that allow for life. And then you can spend time getting them to come out that way?

Your logic here is misleading. I understand what probability means. I know it means it doesn’t HAVE to happen. That isn’t the issue. We know how this ended. This permutation is the one that happened. So then…the odds of it happening are say, perhaps 1 in 2,000,000 (that’s probably too low, but for arguments sake, we’ll go with it.) Everytime the cards are dealt, it can turn out any way at all, and the probability is the same. But we know that one of those 2 million are the permutation that makes this world possible. And it has hit. The odds of it hitting are STILL 1 in 2,000,000. The odds against this permutation is always 1,999,999-in-2,000,000. So it is rather improbable, if we are going simply from probability, that this world, this permutation, would ever actually transpire.” [StealthPudge18]

I don’t know any other way to say it. Shuffle the cards, look at how they come out – whatever they come out, the odds are "whatever".

Now, you ask me to reverse the situation, start with an unshuffled deck, shuffle, now what is the probability of getting 1 particular event.

You’re comparing after the fact probability, with before the fact probability and getting confused. [A Thinking BUM]

The odds of life NOT developing on Venus in the exact way that they didn’t develop are as staggering as the odds that life DID develop on Earth in the exact way that it did.

Unless you say, "Yes, the fact that life did not arise on Venus in the exact way that it didn’t develop is such a small probability that it must have been designed that way by an intelligent designer" – you are inconsistently applying your rule. [A Thinking BUM]

I’m talking about the chance of life developing anywhere as being highly improbable. [StealthPudge18]

I know – exactly as improbable as the series of events that lead up to the lack of life in the exact way that it lacks life on every other planet.

It’s as improbable as odds that those exact water molecules are the ones that freeze into a snowflake.

Would you say that a snowflake is evidence of an intelligent designer? [A Thinking BUM]

To sum up the entire thing, to use the card shuffle example of 1 in 2 million, with the odds of life coming up as 1 in 2 million (or 199999 in 2000000 against); the probability of ANY result coming about when you shuffle is as equally likely as any other result.

So, if life shows up (it’s one particular order of the cards), according to your logic it was a 1 in 2 million shot. All right, pretty miraculous. But apparently a 1 in 2 million shot happens for every possible order that the cards come out. So, if the order is one card off from what it would be if life showed up, THAT order is a 1 in 2 million shot of showing up, (or 199999 in 2000000 against).

Hence the question:

Is the fact that life does not show up in a particular way as much of a miracle as life showing up in a particular way?

If so, would you say that the exact way that life did not arise on Venus is evidence of an intelligent designer, because the odds of life not arising on Venus in that exact way are 1 in 2 million?

If not, how do you justify that life not showing up in an exact way (a 1 in 2 million shot) is less of a miracle than life showing up in a particular way (with the same odds)?

Pirate the Kitty

December 17, 2005

So wait…all those people the win the lottery have extremely high odds against them. And yet they win the lottery. Usually they are poor, uneducated and toothless (barring the few exceptions of closeted gamblers from the middle class). So, obviously the intelligent designer wanted them to win, made them win and that means… And. Wait. I’m confused. God likes rednecks? Yeah, that’s all I got.

StealthPudge18

December 18, 2005

I’m a bit peeved that this can’t be left alone, but for the sake of argument, I’ll reply. =D The odds of ANY outcome in my example is 1 in 2,000,000. But that is not what I’m referring to. How many of the permutations of the 2 million permit life? THAT is the question I’d like answered first.

After that question has been answered, I would like to ask the following: That fact that one event has to happen before another is possible is another extenuating circumstance. (For example, there must be proteins on earth before they can fuse, and a unique set of chemicals present on earth in the right conditions for proteins to form.) In other words, straight probability doesn’t work.

So we’re not just talking about a scenario where it’s a straight 2,000,000 to 1 shot. It is chained probability, where one event has to happen, in turn, and in exactly the right way, before the next event can happen. So, straight probability is a misrepresentation, an oversimplification.

All that said, given the nature of the circumstances needed to spawn life and the nature of the life that arose, I find it more easy to believe that it was purposed rather than accidental.

December 19, 2005

“So we’re not just talking about a scenario where it’s a straight 2,000,000 to 1 shot. It is chained probability, where one event has to happen, in turn, and in exactly the right way, before the next event can happen.” You mean like the exact air molecules that entered you lungs with your last breath, and the next one, and the next one- each one the odds of those exact air molecules…

…that those exact air molecules being the ones and the only ones that enter your lungs with each breath, is staggeringly against the odds. And this is a chained probability, you and everyone else has to breathe in the exact way and stir air currents exactly right to have those moleucles line up exactly right.

I mean we can even ask a forward question – what are the odds of some lung-full of air molecules being in your lungs at 3pm tomorrow? Impossibly low. I mean, a theory of air molecule interactions would have to get those exact air molecules in your lungs at exactly the right time. I find it easier to believe in an Intelligent Designer of air than that it was accidental.

Locriology

Yikes. It actually took me a really long time to figure out what each of you believes on this subject. My opinion: They say the odds of life randomly occurring are something like 1 in 10^40. That’s pretty much guaranteed not to happen.

Keep in mind, though, that there’s not “one chance” for life to happen. In a theoretically infinite universe, and 8 billion years time, it suddenly becomes not only a possibility, but almost a certainty.

“They say the odds of life randomly occurring are something like 1 in 10^40. That’s pretty much guaranteed not to happen. Keep in mind, though, that there’s not “one chance” for life to happen. In a theoretically infinite universe, and 8 billion years time, it suddenly becomes not only a possibility, but almost a certainty. Sharred Prism” I must be the worst explainer of this idea, ever!

First of all, “they say the odds are 1 x 10^40?” what the hell does that mean? That if we ran the universe from the beginning again, the odds of life occurring are 1/10^40? In each of these odds things, it’s the odds of it happening again, just like it did. Again, just like it did. Again, just like it did. Getting dealt the hand: 2 Club, 4 Heart, Ace Heart, King spade, 7 diamond is not special..

The odds of getting that hand AGAIN, though, is 1/4th the odds of getting a Royal Flush. Because it’s the getting again part, that makes the odds impressive – not the odds THAT IT HAPPENED in the first place. Jesus.

can i toss in the monkey wrench ?? humans only have 2% dna away from other primates – next god has a very good sense of humor see duck billed platyapus- so why would god bore himself and create all plantary lives all like we are – read animal farm – god is just god we can not fathom his debths like we can not find the core of earth we simply need to make a concious decision to live good