Tropical Storm Adrian Update (5PM)

Well, we’re on the verge of a hurricane as of this afternoon, Looking at the various models I really don’t trust what they’re saying as the storm is rapidly intensifying. Currently I’d say the winds are near 55 to 60Kts (65 -70MPH) which is just below hurricane force, and I would expect it to make it to hurricane status by this evening. The storm is also tracking further to the south and east than the projected path listed on the NHC (National Hurricane Center) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov 

The storm has been suggesting a ‘banding eye’ type feature which can be seen here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html 

So I’d say that by this time tomorrow we’ll be looking at a Strong Catagory 1 hurricane (winds 75Kts or 85Mph) and still treking towards El Salvador. I think Landfall will see a strong catagory 2… maybe a weak catagory 3 storm hitting Central El Salvador. Guesstimate, I’d say 6PM EDT on Friday. After that all bets are off, the further south the storm tracks, the longer it will be over land, but the mountains are lower in that region which will help the circulation remain intact. In addition the windsheer over that area of the carribean is very low and water temps are also very high which would help the storm to regenerate and rebuild potentially.

Remember, these openions are mine, and mine alone, they do not represent official information nor should be taken as advice. IANAM and any offical information should be obtained from the NWS or the NHC.

I’ll give another update this evening after midnight