Eathquakes: sign of the End Times? Part 1

 I decided to do some research on the frequency of earthquakes. Because I have listened to Christians talking about the: End Times, for some 30 years…and I listened to them talk about of all the signs that point to their assume probability of it being the End Times: and I’m just not sure that it is always a good thing to be so convinced of a belief, that if one doesn’t belief in what they believe, one is thought of as being some kind of cynic. *smiles*  Another thing that bothers me about the End Times talk: it can make us apathetic towards the serious problems that are happening on this planet, such as apathetic towards the political process, cause we may feel that it doesn’t really matter what we do, cause Jesus is coming back again, soon. But, what if he doesn’t come back, soon?  What Jesus says in Matthew 24:44, can be taken as refutation, that there are all kinds of signs, nowadays, pointing to the nearness of Jesus’s 2nd coming:  Matthew 24:  44:You also must be ready therefore, for the Son of Man is coming at an hour when you do not expect Him."

 
I found this study on earthquakes really incredible and am constatnly amazed at the technology that we have developed.

 
 
 
Historical Evidence

(July 2005) provided a list of earthquakes for this period resulting in over 1000 deaths.

With little effort it can be determined that the number of ‘great earthquakes’ has occurred consistently for thousands of years. A comprehensive source of data is http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/hazards/Earthquakes-database.html   Put in any number in those date ranges: to see the corresponding earthquakes of those years.  .

As of April 2007 there were 5,800 destructive earthquakes catalogued since 2150.B.C. This is an average of over 1 great quake per year for the last 4,000 years.
 Seismology is a new science with the first seismograph invented in 1880. For this reason accurate records of earthquakes measuring 7.5 on the Richter scale have only become possible since then. Accurate and complete seismological records are now readily obtainable.
http://www.neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html
 Professor Glenn Biasi at the University of Nevada Reno Seismological Laboratory wrote:

It is accepted amongst seismologists that the number of earthquakes have remained relatively unchanged over many millenniums.

"Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant throughout this century and, according to our records, have actually seemed to decrease in recent years. There are several reasons for the perception that the number of earthquakes, in general, and particularly destructive earthquakes is increasing. 1) A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more that 4,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by telex, computer and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years, and we are able to locate earthquakes more rapidly.” http://www.earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/faq.php?categoryID=6&faqID=110 (April 16 2008)

The reason that the number of earthquakes changes little over time is because earthquakes take years to develop, and are the result of the shifting earth’s mantle. This is how islands and mountain ranges have formed over millennium.

The frequency of earthquakes is quite bewildering.

“It is estimated that there are 500,000 detectable earthquakes in the world each year. 100,000 of those can be felt, and 100 of them cause damage.” http://www.earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/facts.php (April 16 2008)

Google Maps identifies on a map of the globe earthquakes from the last 7 days at Google Real-time Earthquakes. If you want to see Google Maps and the earthquakes of the last 7 days: go to the following link:  http://maps.google.com/maps/mpl?moduleurl=http:%2F%2Fearthquake.usgs.gov%2Feqcenter%2Fmapplets%2Fearthquakes.xml&ie=UTF8&ll=20,170&spn=169.385332,360&t=k&z=1     IT’S REALLY AMAZING: the technology! As I look at this site, now, Sunday the 14th: it shows on a map wher

e there has been 166 earthquakes during the past 7 days!!!!

 

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that large earthquakes occur about once a year. Smaller earthquakes, such as magnitude 2 earthquakes, occur several hundred times a day and several million temblors happen every day. To create a mountain system might take several million medium size earthquakes over tens of millions of years. http://www.encyclopedia.com stated 1 January 2005

"On average about 1,000 earthquakes with intensities of 5.0 or greater are recorded each year. Great earthquakes (intensity 8.0 or higher) occur once a year, major earthquakes (intensity 7.0-7.9) occur 18 times a year, strong earthquakes (intensity 6.0-6.9) 10 times a month, and moderate earthquakes (intensity 5.0-5.9) more than twice a day."

As an example of the power of earthquakes, the 1994 earthquake in Northridge, California released energy equivalent to almost 2 billion kilograms of explosive, about 100 times the amount of energy that was released by the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima during World War II. At magnitude 6.7 the Northridge earthquake is considered moderate in size, yet caused over $20 billion in damage. Earthquakes this size occur about 20 times each year worldwide.

Dedicated seismologists and researchers, including R. Mallet, J. Milne, P. Verney, S. Duda and A.W. Lee have amassed a considerable volume of data on historical earthquakes. Earthquakes have been recorded as early as 2150 B.C.  Four magnitude 6.8 or larger earthquakes and many magnitude 6 – 6.5 shocks occurred in the San Francisco Bay region alone during the 75 years between 1836 and 1911.

Despite no increase in earthquake size or frequency, one could imagine that the increasing global population would have at least resulted in the most earthquake related deaths occurring in the 20th century. Surprisingly this too has not been the case, with prior centuries having more earthquake related deaths. The Encyclopaedia Britannica 2002 on DVD lists major historical earthquakes over the last 1,500 years. Of the 5 earthquakes with the most deaths, only 1 was since 1914 and it was by no means the most destructive. The most destructive earthquake was in 1201 in Syria with 1.1 million killed. In 1556, China had an earthquake with 800,000 killed. In comparison, the largest in the 1900’s killed a relatively minor 240,000.

Table of Most Destructive Earthquakes since 500 AD
(source – Encyclopaedia Britannica 2002)

Year

Size

Location

Deaths

1201

IX

Upper Egypt or Syria

1,100,000

1556

IX

Shensi province, China

830,000

1737

. . .

Calcutta, India

300,000

526

. . .

Antioch, Syria

250,000

1976

7.8

T’ang-shan, China

240,000

1138

XI

Ganzah, Aleppo, Syria
230,000

1920

8.5

Kansu province, China

200,000

1703

. . .

Jeddo, Japan

200,000

856

. . .

Qumis, Damghan, Iran

200,000

893

. . .

Daipur, India

180,000

The total deaths since 1914 (as an editiorial note, the significance of the year 1914, in both of these studies, is because the: Watchtower Society’s concept is that the Last Days started in 1914 and that it was chosen shortly thereafter as God’s sole channel to dispense "the truth that leads to everlasting life." The Watchtower Society has thus gone out of its way to present information that Jesus’ signs, such as earthquakes, have dramatically increased since 1914.  For me, doing this research, it’s un-important and irrevelant about what the Watchtower Society believes. My only purpose of this entry is to show the acitivity of earthquakes over the centuries. But good fruit has come out of both of the studies, from the two different www sties that I mentioned, and are posted below.)

as recorded in the full list appearing in the Britannica was 1.15 million, whilst the same list shows that during the 1200’s 3 earthquakes alone resulted in 1.26 million deaths. Total earthquake related deaths for the 1200’s would be even higher if a complete set of records had been available.

A comparison of deaths from the 1700’s, 1800’s and 1900’s likewise shows that the number of deaths annually have been very similar, with each of the last 3 centuries suffering over 1 million deaths. Considering the six fold population increase during the 20th century the ratio of deaths to population has been considerably less since 1914. Despite the increased population it appears that improvements in technology – including rescue efforts, building standards and early warning systems – have helped reduce the loss of life and suffering from earthquakes in the 20th century.

The above data shows that it is well established that there have been a constant occurrence of great earthquakes since the time of Jesus.

The following link is where I copied and pasted & edited from. It’s a terribly long letter:

       http://www.jwfacts.com/watchtower/earthquakes.php

 

The rest of my entry: is material taken from another study, on another www site, which I give at the end of this article.

 For a number of great earthquakes from the 18th century onward, no death figures are known, the contemporary records simply giving the information that "many" were killed in them. Even if death figures were to be added to all three tables by including more earthquakes from the three periods involved, the comparison still would only demonstrate that the generation of 1914 is in no way unique as far as earthquakes are concemed

The following table presents 24 such "superearthquakes" (the author is defining as a superearthquake: one that killed 100,00 people or more)  from the period A.D. 532 to 1914. Perhaps as many as seven of these (there are quite naturally some uncertainties) occurred in the eighteenth century alone.

 
Location
Deaths

A.D. 532
Syria
130,000

678
Syria
170,000

<td bgcolor="#ffffff" valign="top" align="right”>856
Iran: Qumis Damghan
200,000

893
India: Daipul
180,000

893
Iran: Ardabil
150,000

1138
Egypt, Syria
230,000

1139
Iran: Gansana
100,000

1201
Upper Egypt, Syria
1,100,000

1290
China: Chihli
100,000

1556
China
830,000

1641
Iran: Dehkwargan, Tabriz
300,000

1662
China
300,000

1669
Sicily (Etna eruption)
100,000

1693
Sicily: Catania and Naples
100,000

1703
Japan (tsunami)
100,000

1721
Iran: Tabriz
100,000

1730
China: Chihli
100,000

1730
Japan: Hokkaido
137,000

1731
China: Peking
100,000

1737
India: Calcutta
300,000

1780
Iran: Tabriz
100,000

1850
China
300-400,000

1876
Bay of Bengal (tsunami)
215,000

1908
Italy: Messina/Reggio
110,000