Muse – Triumphs and Realities

Forest before the trees. An aspect of a quote that runs through my mind at times today.

It is good that a majority of the fighting has stopped.

It is good that Saddam’s men have seemed to, largely, fade into the background, hopefully most of them have defected and are now with the folk dancing in the streets.

It is good that no chemical weapons were used on anyone.

It is good that Saddam is out of the way.

And I am glad to be wrong about the dire nature of the fighting. For once its good to be wrong.

Mind you, the way all this was accomplished is what I am most annoyed by, but the end results themselves are good. I won’t and really haven’t argued that.

But there is good and bad.

Some are still without water or medicine in their hospitals. That is bad. Humanitarian aid is coming, yes. I only hope it comes before any more die of lack.

Many Iraqi’s are happy to see us. The pics that many post up and point to show that. This is a good thing. Though I am more cautious of matters than most. Don’t mistake me, I know the Iraqis aren’t bad people. That isn’t my meaning. I’m just not one to buy into initial jubilation because it is just that. Initial.

I’ve always thought past the immediate and looked toward the future when I can. My mind is full of what ifs and worst case scenarios which is, in some circles, a virtue. Prepare for the worse, hope for the best, right?

Indeed.

Well, right now the world is in a transition state, I believe. Everyone is still in ‘shock’ at the change. The fighting isn’t over, but for the most part the battle itself has been decided in the immediate. Save, of course, for potential lingering guerrilla action which can’t be predicted one way or the other.

I’ve always thought that the war will be the easy part and it largely has been. The hardest part is now stepping up to bat. There are 25 million people now without guidance. Ignoring the spots of battered infrastructure, there is no central control or guiding focus of leadership.

This, presumably, will be the first thing to be addressed, save for the immediate need tog et food, water and medicine to those who are in need. Like the ones I noted about in my last entry, who are dissatisfied. And not dancing.

Added to that is that some believe the US choices when it comes to reforming leadership are faulty. I’m inclined to agree, based on my own limited understanding(which I seek to expand each day). For one is the near fact that the US seems intent to distance this rebuilding and restructuring from the International community. Logically, this is a bad idea. Emotionally, US and UK did all the work so we should get everything in the end, right? Well, things don’t work best that way.

Beyond that, the longer that American forces are in Iraq, the more chance someone will start to get twitchy. What that might pan out to is impossible to guess. The Middle East has always been a baffling region. It’s hard to tell how most will react, pro or con, but for the moment most Arab states seem uncertain how to react, which means that as we deal with Iraq, they’ll be watching and their opinion of matters will form based on what they see.

But even that leaves a big, fat question mark. If Iraq prospers, will they see it as an enticement to ‘go western’? Or will they see the new Iraq as an uncomfortable rival? Will Iraq take on vestiges of western culture? If it does, will other Arab states take this with indifference or upset? If both conditions occur, westernization and industrialization, I’d consider it most likely that some bad reaction will show itself.

I’ve been reading up on Islam and the Middle East a bit to see if I can find any historic parallels to go on, but overall it seems that western interference is met poorly in the end. Right now distrust of America in Iraq is overridden by the removal of Saddam. In the end its easy to see why most of the people will likely be friendly toward the US for now. I know about Saddam’s crimes. I know of Uday’s deviance and that of Saddam’s other son. And his party members. They were a bad lot. For most, almost anything is better.

But I’m not so optimistic. And I am honest about my pessimism. I wonder if the friendliness will hold after the elation has calmed some. After the Iraqis are done tearing down posters and pictures and demolishing statues, what will it be that comes into their minds? Will they be focused on rebuilding their home? Will they work side by side with Americans to do this? Will they mind if we stay over just a little while longer to make sure everything is ok? Probably. I suspect that the Iraqis themselves will have a greater tolerance for America in general.

Beyond that, I’m more worried about other Arab nations and terrorist organizations. I’m not one of the ones that predicted a mass wave of terrorist attacks during and after the war. No, I’m more concerned about a subtle rise. One event from the war still sticks in my mind. When men from other nations crossed into Iraq, supposedly to fight against US forces. That is, in my opinion, the hint that there are those who do not like what we have done and may seek out organizations that will let them vent their frustration or ire against the US and other nations.

I don’t know.

Let the Iraqis dance. They deserve it. Me, I’ll keep looking ahead for rocks under the waves.