Time for a change in Washington…

Change is a good thing. Back in 94, people thought change was good when they tossed the GOP into control of both the house and the senate. After twelve years of scandals, investigations and bribes… people across the country are starting to believe another change is in order. I’m not one to put all my chips on what the polls say, after all it was the exit polls that had Kerry leading in a certain state in defiance of what questionable voting machines had to say about it. But going into this year’s Novemeber elections for the house and the senate, the wave is very farmilar to the one we saw in 94, and if things go the way they are right now… the other shoe is going to drop and the GOP will lose their majority and Bush’s status as a lame duck will become official. Even though many are excited and already making plans for a change, I’m on a more wait and see what happens on the 7th kind of guy. I won’t be cracking any bubbly until the final vote is counted, and the results are official. but in the meantime here are some interesting notes that I think many will find interesting:

This morning at a briefing on the congressional elections, an event that featured former Representatives Dick Armey, Jennifer Dunn, and Dick Gephardt and that was sponsored by a Washington law firm, political analyst Charlie Cook–an independent handicapper trusted by Ds and Rs–offered good news for the Democrats. He compared 2006 to 1994, the year when Republicans shockingly seized control of both houses of Congress, netting a whopping 52 House seats. Cook noted that in October 1994, 39 percent of Americans said they believed the country was heading in the right direction and 48 percent thought it was on the wrong track.

Now the right direction/wrong track numbers are far more negative: 26 percent to 61 percent. In October 1994, President Bill Clinton’s approval rating was 48 percent. These days, President George W. Bush is about 38 percent. The approval rating for Congress in 1994 was 24 percent (with 67 percent disapproving). Today, it’s lower: 16 percent (with 75 percent giving Congress a thumb’s down). In 1994, Republicans had a 6 point lead in polls asking respondents to say whether they preferred a GOP or Democratic candidate. Now the Democrats have a 15 point edge. But when asked if their own member of Congress deserved reelection, 49 percent in 1994 said no; now only 45 percent say no. (In both years, 39 percent said boot the bum out.)

The bottom-line: out of five key indicators of the national politicalmood, four are significantly worse for the Republicans in 2006 compared to the Democrats in 1994. As Cook put it, the 2006 political wave (at this moment) is bigger than that of 1994. But that does not mean the Dems are going to win as many seats as the GOPers did twelve years ago. Gephardt cautioned that congressional districts are far more gerrymandered these days than they were in 1994 (which means fewer are in play) and that Republicans have had a year to prepare for this election and build a wall to hold back the coming storm. In 1994, he said, the Democrats were taken by complete surprise. And Dunn–perhaps trying to convince herself–maintained that her party had plenty of money to dump into the limited number of House contests up for grab and would be able to prevent the Democrats from picking up more than a dozen House seats. The Democrats need 15 seats to obtain control of the House.

Still, Cook, who attributes 70 percent of the electorate’s sour mood to Bush’s war in Iraq, was predicting a Democratic gain in the House of at least 20 seats and perhaps 35. As for the Senate, Cook described it as a toss-up, with control of that body resting on what will happen in Missouri, Virginia, Tennessee, and New Jersey. The Democrats, according to Cook, probably will need three of these four races to win the Senate. He warned that there is a fair bit of “volatility” within the electorate and that it is nearly impossible to predict what will happen by adding up outcomes in individual House races. In 1994, he recalled, he and other trackers foresaw a GOP gain of 20 to 30 House seats–but nothing like what happened. “When there is a wave,” Cook said, “they always go bigger than you expect.”

Democrats, who have not done much to shape the current political dynamic, can hope so. For nail-biters, the immediate questions are obvious. Can Bush and Karl Rove do anything in the last two weeks of the campaign to change the weather? There’s not much time left for an October Surprise. Can they pull off a November Surprise? If not and the forecast doesn’t shift, can the Republicans construct fortifications to beat back the wave in just enough spots to keep their majority afloat in Congress? Cook thinks not. I’m not going to be as gutsy and make any predictions except this: Rove is either about to meet his Waterloo or to confirm his reputation as an odds-defying political genius…

– Source

Like I said before, I’m not one to put all my money on the polls… but they are looking very similar if not better than the numbers the GOP used to take the house and senate in 94. So things are looking good, but as I said before it isn’t over until its over. With the current scandals and the bloodiest month of the year currently going on in Iraq, it’s going to be hard for the GOP to fight back and retain their numbers. Not impossible, but very, very diffucult. I can’t see it happening… there’s not going to be any miracle October or November surprise for the GOP. Even if it did happen, I doubt one big enough will ever make people forget the Foley scandal and the fact that someone in the GOP tried to solicitate a minor. It would have to be a massive surprise to erase that boo boo. Once again I don’t see that happening.

Regardless of the result, November 7th is going to be an interesting night for all involved and watching. I plan to be there in front of the tube and the net tallying up results and watching very carefully. I’m going to have a chilled bottle of bubbly on stand by should the best happen and my OD soap box ready should the worst even occur. I’m hoping for the best, but I’ve learned the hard way that you have to wait to see what happens before you celebrate. Elections can be sticky and like Yogi always said, it’s ain’t over till it’s over.

The fat lady might not be on stange for the GOP just yet, but if the above stats are any indicataion, she’s backstage and warming up. Will she get her chance to sing? We’ll have to wait to find out…

Peter